Slip analyzer

Multi-leg slips are highly sensitive to correlation between legs. Both figures below are estimates, and the independence figure is almost always too optimistic.

Leg 1 descriptionOddsModel prob (%)

implied 53.5%

edge —

Leg 2 descriptionOddsModel prob (%)

implied 48.8%

edge —

Correlation between legs

Combined decimal payout

3.833

Product of each leg's decimal odds

Market implied (independence)

26.1%

Includes vig on every leg

Model, independence (est.)

—

Assumes legs are unrelated — rarely exactly true

Model, correlation-adjusted (est.)

—

Conservative shade for medium correlation

EV per unit — independence

—

EV per unit — adjusted

—

Caution: multi-leg slips compound both model error and correlation error. The independence calculation is shown separately only so you can see how much the assumption is doing. Treat the adjusted figure as a rough, conservative estimate — not a corrected truth.